Macro
Fed's Inflation Problem Just Got Real: PCE Day
Core PCE for May prints today as Fed dot plot already signals a potential 2026 hike. Here's what traders need to watch at 8:30 AM ET.
Jun 25, 2026
Archive
107 articles
Macro
ECB Hikes, BoJ Hikes — The Fed Is Alone
Global central banks are fracturing. ECB raised 25bps June 11, BoJ hit 1.0% in June. The Fed is frozen. Dollar and sovereign spreads are the trade.
Jun 25, 2026
Macro
Fed Paralysis Meets 4.2% Inflation: Warsh's First Test
The Fed holds at 3.50–3.75% with a 4-to-8 internal dissent and PCE inflation forecast revised to 3.6%. Thursday's CPI print is the week's true catalyst.
Jun 24, 2026
Macro
BoJ Confirms Rate Hike Path as Yen Dynamics Heat Up
Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino confirms tightening bias after 25bps hike to 1.0%, the highest rate since 1995. What it means for USD/JPY traders.
Jun 24, 2026
Macro
ECB Hikes, BoJ at 1.0%: Global Rate Divergence Widens
The ECB hiked 25 bps on June 11 and the BoJ hit 1.0% while the Fed holds. Global policy divergence is the macro trade of mid-2026. Key levels inside.
Jun 23, 2026
Macro
Fed Frozen at 3.63% as CPI Hits 4.2%: Hike Risk Is Real
The Fed held rates steady at 3.50–3.75% as May CPI surged to 4.2% YoY. The dot plot now signals a possible 2026 hike. Here's what traders must watch.
Jun 23, 2026
Macro
ECB Hikes, BoJ at 1.00%: Global Policy Fractures
ECB raised 25bp June 11, BoJ hit 1.00% — while the Fed froze. The widest G5 central bank divergence since the 1990s is repricing FX, bonds, and energy.
Jun 22, 2026
Macro
Warsh's Fed Eyes Rate Hike as PCE Looms Thursday
Fed holds at 3.63% but signals a 25bp hike ahead. With PCE due Thursday and CPI at 4.2%, Warsh's first FOMC move reshapes 2026 rate expectations.
Jun 22, 2026
Macro
Global Central Banks Split as Hormuz Shock Deepens
The ECB is hiking, the BoC can't cut, and the BoJ may tighten for currency reasons. Central bank divergence is the macro trade of 2026.
Jun 19, 2026
Macro
Fed's Dot Plot Flips: Next Move Is a Hike
The June FOMC held rates at 3.50–3.75%, but 9 of 18 officials now project a hike in 2026. Here's what the hawkish dot-plot flip means for traders.
Jun 19, 2026
Macro
Retail Sales Crush Estimates as Consumers Defy Inflation
May retail sales surged 0.9% vs 0.5% expected, with broad-based gains across sectors. Consumer spending remains resilient despite 6.5% wholesale inflation.
Jun 18, 2026
Macro
ECB Hikes Rates for First Time Since 2023 on War Inflation
The European Central Bank raised rates 25 basis points to 2.25%, its first hike since 2023, as eurozone inflation hit 3.2% driven by Middle East energy costs.
Jun 18, 2026
Macro
ECB Hikes for First Time Since 2023 as Iran War Fuels Euro Inflation
The European Central Bank raised rates 25 basis points to 2.25% on June 11, its first hike since 2023, as eurozone inflation hit 3.2% from the Iran energy shock.
Jun 17, 2026
Macro
Inflation Hits 4.2% as Energy Shock Tightens the Fed's Trap
US CPI inflation surged to 4.2% in May 2026, driven by a 23.5% energy price spike from the Iran conflict. The Fed faces its toughest policy bind in years.
Jun 17, 2026
Macro
Oil Plunges Below $84 as Iran Deal Reshapes Inflation Outlook
Brent crude plunged over 4% to $83.75 after the U.S.-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. What falling oil means for inflation, the Fed, and global markets.
Jun 16, 2026
Macro
Central Bank Super Week: Five Rate Decisions in Eight Days
Five major central banks deliver rate decisions this week, with the BOJ hiking to 1%, the ECB raising rates, and the Fed holding. Here's what traders need to know.
Jun 16, 2026
Macro
Consumer Sentiment Ticks Up but Inflation Fear Lingers
University of Michigan consumer sentiment rose to 48.9 in June from May's record low 44.8. But inflation expectations remain elevated at 4.6%. Full analysis.
Jun 15, 2026
Macro
Warsh Chairs First FOMC as Iran Deal Reshapes Outlook
Kevin Warsh leads his first FOMC meeting June 16-17 with the US-Iran deal reshaping inflation expectations. What traders need to watch Wednesday.
Jun 15, 2026
Macro
Warsh's First Fed Meeting Sets Tone for 2026
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces his first FOMC meeting June 16-17 with a divided committee, 4.2% inflation, and markets demanding clarity.
Jun 12, 2026
Macro
CPI Hits 4.2% as Energy Costs Drive Inflation Surge
May CPI rose 4.2% year over year, the highest since April 2023, as gasoline prices jumped 40.5% annually. Core inflation held at 2.9%.
Jun 12, 2026
Macro
ECB Set to Hike as Fitch Downgrades Global Outlook
The ECB is expected to raise rates 25bps to 2.25% on June 11 as Fitch downgrades global sovereign outlook to "deteriorating" on Iran war fallout.
Jun 11, 2026
Macro
CPI Hits 4.2% and the Fed's Rate Cut Dream Is Dead
May CPI surged to 4.2%, the highest in three years, as energy costs drove 60% of the increase. Markets now price a 96% chance of a Fed hike by December.
Jun 11, 2026
Macro
ECB Set to Hike Rates as Energy Shock Reshapes Policy
The ECB is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points on June 11, its first hike since 2024, as energy-driven inflation forces a hawkish pivot across global central banks.
Jun 10, 2026
Macro
May CPI Expected to Show Inflation Back Above 4%
Economists forecast May CPI at 4.2% year over year, the highest since early 2024, as energy costs from the Hormuz crisis drive consumer prices sharply higher.
Jun 10, 2026
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