Macro
July CPI Drops at 8:30 AM — Fed's Next Move Hangs on Print
July CPI hits the tape at 8:30 AM ET. Consensus is 3.4% headline, 2.5% core. One number reprices September rate hike odds in real time.
Aug 12, 2026
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174 articles
Macro
Yield Curve Steepens to 47 bps — What It Signals Now
The 10-year Treasury yields 4.72% versus 4.25% on the 2-year — a 47-bp positive spread that's repricing growth and inflation risk simultaneously.
Aug 12, 2026
Macro
July CPI Lands Tomorrow — Fed's Rate Path Hinges on One Number
July CPI prints Wednesday 8:30 AM ET. With three FOMC dissenters already pushing for a hike and inflation at 3.5%, this number moves markets.
Aug 11, 2026
Macro
Yield Curve Uninverts as Global Central Banks Diverge
The 2s10s spread hits +46 bps as the ECB hikes, BOJ tightens to 0.75%, and the BOE eases. Here's what the divergence means for U.S. rate traders.
Aug 11, 2026
Macro
July CPI Wednesday: Fed's September Decision Hinges on It
Three Fed hawks wanted a July hike. Wednesday's July CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET is the single data point that decides whether they get their way in September.
Aug 10, 2026
Macro
Yield Curve Steepens to 44bps: What It's Pricing Now
The 10-year Treasury at 4.69% vs. the 2-year at 4.25% marks a 44bp positive spread — a steepening that signals higher-for-longer risk, not rate cuts.
Aug 10, 2026
Macro
July Jobs Report: 83K Consensus, Everything Rides on 8:30
July nonfarm payrolls hit at 8:30 AM ET with an 83K consensus. A miss could kill September hike odds; a beat validates the Fed's three dissenters.
Aug 7, 2026
Macro
Fed's 9-3 Split: What the Most Divided Vote Since 2016 Means
Three FOMC dissenters wanted a hike on July 29. With 10-year yields at 4.63% and CPI at 3.5%, the September meeting is now a live event.
Aug 7, 2026
Macro
Brent at $91.63 Keeps Inflation Alive and Rate Cuts on Hold
Brent crude at $91.63 and WTI at $84.51 are the Fed's inflation problem in commodity form. Here's what the energy bid means for September policy.
Aug 6, 2026
Macro
U.S. GDP Slows to 1.5% as Fed Hawks Circle
Q2 2026 GDP grew just 1.5% annualized, decelerating sharply from Q1's 2.1% — and three FOMC dissenters wanted a hike anyway. Here's what it means.
Aug 5, 2026
Macro
BOJ Hikes to 1.00%; Yen, Global Rates in Play
The Bank of Japan raised rates 25 bps to 1.00% on July 31 — highest since 1995 — as yen intervention and global yield spillovers hit multi-asset traders now.
Aug 5, 2026
Macro
Fed's Three Dissenters Signal September Rate Hike Is Live
Three FOMC dissenters pushed for a hike at the July 29 meeting. With CPI at 3.5% and the 10-year at 4.75%, September 16 is a two-way meeting.
Aug 4, 2026
Macro
Brent at $96 With a Hawkish ECB: Energy's Inflation Loop
Brent crude at $96.12 and WTI at $88.58 are feeding a central bank inflation loop. The ECB hiked in June. The Fed and BoE are under pressure to follow.
Aug 4, 2026
Macro
ISM Manufacturing July: The Number That Moves Rates
ISM Manufacturing PMI July 2026 expected at 54.0 vs prior 53.3 — the Prices Paid sub-index at 70+ is what rate traders are watching most closely today.
Aug 3, 2026
Macro
BoE Holds, UK PMI Surges: What It Means for GBP
UK Manufacturing PMI demolishes 49.7 forecast with a 52.1 print; Bank of England holds at 3.75% with BofA calling no more hikes in 2026. GBP/USD at 1.3450.
Aug 3, 2026
Macro
Fed's 9-3 Hold Sends 30-Year Yield to 2007 High
Three Fed hawks dissent as the 30-year Treasury hits 5.19%—the highest since 2007. What the split vote means for September rate pricing.
Jul 31, 2026
Macro
BoJ Holds at 1.0%, Hawk Pushes Monthly Hike Pace
Bank of Japan holds at a 30-year high of 1.0% but cuts its FY2026 inflation forecast to 2.5%. BoJ hawk Tamura wants hikes every few months.
Jul 31, 2026
Macro
Fed's Three-Dissent Hike Signal Makes September Live
Three FOMC members voted to hike rates at the July meeting. With oil up 20% in July and claims at 60-year lows, September is suddenly in play.
Jul 30, 2026
Macro
Q2 GDP, PCE, and Claims Hit at 8:30 — Here's the Trade
Q2 GDP, Core PCE, and jobless claims all print at 8:30 AM ET today. Here's what each number means for the September Fed hike decision and your portfolio.
Jul 30, 2026
Macro
Fed Holds at 3.50%–3.75% for Fifth Straight Meeting
The FOMC holds rates unchanged for a fifth consecutive meeting as Warsh prepares to speak. No dot plot today — the press conference is all traders get.
Jul 29, 2026
Macro
Oil's 20% July Surge Is the Fed's Biggest Problem Now
WTI crude topped $100 a barrel in July, up 20% on the month. That energy shock will hit PCE data and could force a Fed hike in September 2026.
Jul 29, 2026
Macro
FOMC Day 1: Fed Holds at 3.50–3.75% With Real Two-Way Risk
The FOMC convenes today with a 64.2% hold probability — down 23 points in one week. Here's what the Warsh presser must deliver tomorrow.
Jul 28, 2026
Macro
ECB Holds at 2.25%, BOJ and BOE Due This Week
ECB held rates at 2.25% July 23 with a hawkish tone. BOJ decides Thursday, BOE Friday — a three central bank week with real FX implications.
Jul 28, 2026
Macro
Durable Goods Beat Sets Up Fed's Toughest Call of 2026
June durable goods orders jumped 1.6% with core capex proxy up 1.4%, complicating the FOMC's July 29 rate decision as hawks gain ground.
Jul 27, 2026
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