Macro
Hawks vs. Doves: Inside the FOMC's Closest Call Since 2024
Fed holds at 3.50–3.75% with 64% probability, but a 23-point swing in one week signals hawks are gaining. Wednesday's statement is the only trade that matters.
Jul 27, 2026
Archive
174 articles
Macro
Fed Blackout Ends July 29: What Powell Must Deliver
The Fed holds 3.50–3.75% into its July 29 FOMC decision with no dot plot, no SEP. Statement language is the only policy signal traders get.
Jul 24, 2026
Macro
ECB Holds at 2.25% — June Hike Was No Fluke
ECB holds deposit rate at 2.25% on July 23 after June's shock 25bp hike. Middle East inflation risk keeps the door open for further tightening.
Jul 24, 2026
Macro
ECB Holds at 2.25% — September Hike Now in Crosshairs
ECB holds rates at 2.25% July 23 as Lagarde signals inflation risks. September hike nearly fully priced. What her language means for EUR/USD and Bunds.
Jul 23, 2026
Macro
Treasury Curve Steepens as FOMC Week Looms
The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.63% vs. 4.26% on the 2-year. With FOMC July 28-29 six days out, the steepening curve signals a key rate inflection.
Jul 23, 2026
Macro
Fed Hold Locked In — But July 29 Statement Is the Trade
The FOMC meets July 28-29 with a hold at 3.50-3.75% near-certain. The real trade is in the statement language on inflation and the Middle East.
Jul 22, 2026
Macro
BOJ Holds July 31, But the Yen Trade Isn't Over
The BOJ holds at 1.00% on July 31 — a near-certainty. But Goldman's 165 USD/JPY forecast and sticky Japanese inflation keep Q4 hike risk alive.
Jul 22, 2026
Macro
ECB Holds Thursday — Lagarde's Words Are the Trade
ECB rate decision hits Thursday at 8:45 AM ET. Hold is 90% priced in, but Lagarde's September forward guidance is where the real trade lives.
Jul 21, 2026
Macro
Fed Frozen at 3.63% — July 29 Is About September
The Fed holds July 29 at 3.50–3.75%. With CPI at 3.5% and a 4-to-8 FOMC dissent, the only question is whether Warsh signals a September cut.
Jul 21, 2026
Macro
Fed Frozen at 3.63% as Inflation Stays 175 bps Above Target
With CPI at 3.5% and the July 31 FOMC meeting days away, the Fed's one-hike dot plot signal is the most important macro trade of the summer.
Jul 20, 2026
Macro
ECB Decides Thursday With September Hike Already at 70%
The ECB holds at 2.25% Thursday, but Lagarde's press conference carries the real trade — September hike odds sit at 70% and the euro hangs on every word.
Jul 20, 2026
Macro
CPI's -0.4% Drop Is a Gas Station Mirage
June CPI fell 0.4% MoM — the biggest monthly drop since April 2020 — but core inflation held flat. Here's what it means for the July 29 FOMC.
Jul 17, 2026
Macro
The Yield Curve Is Steepening for the Wrong Reasons
The 2s10s spread hit +42 bps as the 10-year holds 4.55%. This isn't a recovery signal — it's stagflation pricing. Here's what the curve is telling traders.
Jul 17, 2026
Macro
Retail Sales Slowdown Tests Consumer Resilience
June retail sales consensus calls for +0.2% MoM — but ex-auto strip expected to go negative. Here's what the 8:30 ET print means for July 29 FOMC.
Jul 16, 2026
Macro
BOJ Hikes, Goldman Targets 165 USD/JPY — Carry Unwind Risk Grows
Bank of Japan raises rates 25bps as Goldman Sachs targets 165 USD/JPY. Here's what the global carry trade repricing means for cross-asset positioning.
Jul 16, 2026
Macro
Warsh Faces Senate at 10 AM — September Hike Still Live
Fed Chair Warsh testifies before the Senate Banking Committee today at 10 AM ET. June CPI's -0.4% MoM print hasn't killed the September hike risk.
Jul 15, 2026
Macro
The Yield Curve at 4.62% Is Telling You Something
The 10-year Treasury yield at 4.62% versus a 2-year at 4.26% signals persistent rate hike risk, not a soft-landing. Here's what the curve means right now.
Jul 15, 2026
Macro
June CPI Drops: What the Number Actually Means
June CPI headline falls on energy reversal, but core inflation holds near 2.9%. Here's what the print means for the July 29 FOMC decision.
Jul 14, 2026
Macro
Warsh Before Congress: What He Must Say Today
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies at 10 AM ET as the FOMC sits split 9-to-8 on rate hikes. What his language on inflation means for July 29.
Jul 14, 2026
Macro
June CPI Preview: Will 3.8% Kill the Rate-Cut Dream?
June CPI drops Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Consensus sees 3.8% headline, 2.8% core. Here's what every number means for the July FOMC.
Jul 13, 2026
Macro
ECB Hikes While Fed Freezes: Trading the Divergence
ECB raised rates to 2.25% in June while the Fed held at 3.62%. Five central banks, five strategies on the same global shock — here's the trade.
Jul 13, 2026
Macro
June CPI Due Tuesday: Will 4.2% Inflation Break Higher?
June CPI drops Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. With May YoY at 4.2% and the Fed's dot plot flagging a hike, this is the week's defining number for traders.
Jul 10, 2026
Macro
Yield Curve Steepens: What 4.56% on the 10-Year Means Now
The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.56% with the 2-year at 4.21%. The steepening curve signals stagflation risk — here's how to trade the spread.
Jul 10, 2026
Macro
FOMC Minutes Drop at 2PM: The 8-4 Dissent Decoded
The June 17 FOMC minutes release at 2:00 p.m. ET today. Four dissenters, a hawkish dot plot, and 4.2% CPI make this the week's most important macro event.
Jul 9, 2026