Macro
Waller's Ultimatum: Friday CPI Will Make or Break a September Hike
With three Fed dissenters and Governor Waller on record for a potential hike, Friday's August CPI is the most consequential data print of 2026.
Sep 9, 2026
Archive
236 articles
Macro
U.S. GDP at 1.5%, Trade Gap at $101B: The Slowdown Is Real
U.S. GDP decelerated to 1.5% in Q2 2026 and the trade deficit hit $101.5B in June. Here's what the macro data says about where the economy is headed.
Sep 9, 2026
Macro
August CPI Friday: Fed's Last Data Point Before Rate Vote
August CPI prints Friday at 8:30 AM ET — nowcasts show 3.38% YoY re-acceleration. Here's what it means for the Sept 15–16 FOMC decision.
Sep 8, 2026
Macro
Global Central Banks Are All Hawkish at Once — What It Means
ECB hiked in June, BoE's Pill wants 4.00%, and the BOJ is eyeing September. A synchronized global tightening cycle is back — and it's dollar-negative.
Sep 8, 2026
Macro
August Jobs Blowout Crushes Fed Rate-Cut Dreams
August nonfarm payrolls surged 162,000 vs. 53,000 consensus, reshaping Fed rate hike odds to 59% ahead of the September 16 FOMC decision.
Sep 7, 2026
Macro
CPI Friday Will Make or Break the September Fed Hike
August CPI nowcast tracks at 3.38% YoY — above that level, a Fed rate hike to 4.00% on September 16 becomes near-certain. Here's the full inflation setup.
Sep 7, 2026
Macro
August Jobs Collapse: +22K Payrolls, Unemployment at 4.3%
August nonfarm payrolls crashed to +22,000 — far below the +75,000 consensus. Here's what the jobs data means for the Sept. 16 FOMC decision.
Sep 4, 2026
Macro
ECB Sept. 10 and BoJ Sept. 18: Two Central Banks, One Week
ECB meets September 10 and BoJ decides September 18 — two live central bank events that could reshape rates, euro, and yen in a single week. What traders need now.
Sep 4, 2026
Macro
US Trade Deficit Poised to Blow Out to -$90B in July
The July US trade deficit is expected to widen sharply to -$90B from -$73.3B in June. Here's what the number means for stagflation risk and Fed policy.
Sep 3, 2026
Macro
Fed's Hammack Speaks Today: Hike Signal Could Reprice Front End
Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack speaks at 3 PM ET today, the first Fed voice before the September 15-16 FOMC. A hike signal could immediately move 2-year yields.
Sep 3, 2026
Macro
RBNZ Hikes 25bp to 2.75% — October Pause, December Live
RBNZ raises OCR 25bp to 2.75% by consensus, ending July's 3-3 split. One more hike expected in December. What it means for NZD and global rate outlook.
Sep 2, 2026
Macro
NFP Friday Is the Fed's Last Off-Ramp Before Sept. 16
August payrolls hit Friday at 8:30 AM ET. With PCE stuck at 3.7% and markets pricing a Sept. hike, one weak jobs number reshuffles everything.
Sep 2, 2026
Macro
ISM Manufacturing PMI: Can 55+ Streak Hold in August?
August ISM Manufacturing PMI hits at 10:00 AM ET. Nine straight months above 50 are on the line — and the September 16 FOMC hike odds depend on it.
Sep 1, 2026
Macro
Fed's Three Dissenters: The FOMC Split Reshaping Rate Bets
Three FOMC members voted for a hike at the July 29 meeting — the most hawkish internal split this cycle. Here's what it means for September 16.
Sep 1, 2026
Macro
Warsh Hits Jackson Hole With Inflation at 3.4% and Hawks in the Room
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote with core PCE at 3.3%, three FOMC dissents for a hike, and September odds at one-in-three.
Aug 28, 2026
Macro
Yield Curve Turns Positive as Rate Hike Risk Returns in 2026
The 10-year Treasury at 4.66% and 2-year at 4.19% signal a 47-basis-point positive spread — and what it means for traders heading into September's FOMC.
Aug 28, 2026
Macro
July PCE Lands: Fed's September Hold Gets Green Light
July core PCE tracks near 3.2% YoY — exactly where the Fed needs it to justify a hold at the September 16 FOMC meeting.
Aug 27, 2026
Macro
Yield Curve Turns Positive: What the 47bp Spread Signals
The 10-year Treasury at 4.64% vs. the 2-year at 4.17% produces a 47bp positive spread — a macro signal traders can't afford to ignore heading into September.
Aug 27, 2026
Macro
PCE and GDP Hit at 8:30 — Stagflation Data Day
July PCE and Q2 GDP second estimate drop at 8:30 AM ET today. Core PCE at 3.3% and GDP at 1.5% spell stagflation trouble for rate markets.
Aug 26, 2026
Macro
Jackson Hole 2026: Warsh's Podium, Fed's Hike Signal
Fed Chair Warsh speaks Friday at Jackson Hole as three FOMC dissenters push for hikes. September 16 decision is live. Here's what to watch.
Aug 26, 2026
Macro
Warsh's Jackson Hole Debut: What Traders Must Know
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks Friday at Jackson Hole — his first keynote. With three hawkish dissenters and a 30-year yield near a 19-year high, any deviation from neutral moves markets.
Aug 25, 2026
Macro
Yield Curve Positive Again — But the Risk Isn't Over
The 2s10s spread sits at +50 bps, but with core PCE tracking 3.2% and three Fed hawks pushing for hikes, the curve's return to positive slope carries a warning.
Aug 25, 2026
Macro
Warsh Faces Inflation Reckoning at Jackson Hole Friday
Fed Chair Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote Friday with three FOMC dissenters on record and core CPI stuck at 2.5%. What traders must watch.
Aug 24, 2026
Macro
Yield Curve Signals Rate Hike Risk as PCE Looms
The 10-year Treasury at 4.69% and a 50bp positive spread over the 2-year signal markets are pricing persistent inflation — not a Fed pivot. Here's the trade.
Aug 24, 2026