Macro
Oil at $103 Puts the Fed in a 1970s-Style Bind
Brent crude surging past $103 on collapsed Iran peace talks is pushing PCE inflation toward 4.5%, recreating a stagflationary trap not seen since the 1970s.
May 11, 2026
Archive
236 articles
Macro
Fed's Warsh Era Begins as Senate Votes on Confirmation
The Senate is expected to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair today, ending the Powell era and opening a new chapter for monetary policy amid 3.5% inflation.
May 11, 2026
Macro
Warsh Era Begins: What a New Fed Chair Means for Rates
Kevin Warsh is set to become Fed Chair on May 15 after a party-line Senate vote. Here's what his leadership means for interest rates and markets.
May 8, 2026
Macro
April Payrolls Preview: Why 70,000 Jobs Changes Everything
April nonfarm payrolls expected at 55K-70K, a sharp slowdown from March. The report drops one week before the Fed's historic leadership change.
May 8, 2026
Macro
30-Year Treasury Yield Flirts With 5% as Oil Muddies Fed
The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.02% before easing to 4.99% as oil-driven inflation fears clash with peace deal optimism. Here's what it means for rates.
May 7, 2026
Macro
April Jobs Report Tomorrow Could Jolt Fed Rate Debate
April nonfarm payrolls forecast at 70K after March's 178K surprise. A hot or cold number could reshape Fed rate expectations ahead of the June FOMC meeting.
May 7, 2026
Macro
Bank of England Hawkish Pivot Stuns Markets on Rates
Bank of England holds rates at 3.75% and signals possible hike as Middle East oil shock pushes UK inflation forecast above 3%, stunning rate-cut bets.
May 6, 2026
Macro
Trump Pauses Hormuz Operation as Iran Deal Takes Shape
Trump pauses Operation Project Freedom in the Strait of Hormuz, signaling progress on Iran peace deal while maintaining blockade of Iranian ports.
May 6, 2026
Macro
Warsh Clears Committee as Powell Era Ends May 15
Kevin Warsh advances toward Fed chair confirmation as Powell confirms exit May 15. Markets face a leadership transition at the worst possible time.
May 5, 2026
Macro
Oil at $114 Threatens the Fed's One-Cut Playbook
Brent crude at $114 and the Strait of Hormuz still closed put the Fed's 2026 rate cut forecast at risk. How the oil shock complicates the inflation fight.
May 5, 2026
Macro
Powell Hands Warsh a Divided Fed With 11 Days to the Switch
Jerome Powell hands the Fed gavel to Kevin Warsh on May 15 with four dissents from last week's FOMC, the deepest split since 1992. What Warsh changes first.
May 4, 2026
Macro
Q1 GDP Slows to 2.0% as PCE Price Index Surges to 4.5%
First-quarter US GDP expanded just 2.0% as the PCE price index hit 4.5%, the worst stagflation print since the early 1980s and a direct hit to Fed policy.
May 4, 2026
Macro
Iran War Oil Shock Pushes Brent to $114 as ISM Data Looms
Brent crude near $114 after touching $126, the largest oil supply disruption on record, threatens the soft landing as the April ISM print arrives Friday.
May 1, 2026
Macro
Fed Holds Rates at 3.5%-3.75% as Four Dissents Mark Deepest Split Since 1992
The Fed kept rates at 3.50%-3.75% Wednesday with four dissents, the most since 1992, as Iran-war oil shock pushes core PCE to 3.2%.
May 1, 2026
Macro
Q1 GDP and March PCE Land Together Thursday — What Traders Watch
Q1 2026 GDP advance estimate and March PCE inflation print together Thursday at 8:30 ET. The two reports will reset the Fed's June decision tree.
Apr 30, 2026
Macro
Fed Holds at 3.75% in Most Divided Vote Since 1992
Federal Reserve held rates at 3.5%-3.75% in an 8-4 split — the most divided FOMC vote in 33 years. Powell's last meeting before stepping down.
Apr 30, 2026
Macro
Q1 GDP Forecasters Split Between 1.2% and 2.6%
Thursday's Q1 2026 GDP advance estimate could land anywhere from 1.2% to 2.6%. Why forecasters disagree this much, and what each scenario means for the Fed.
Apr 29, 2026
Macro
Fed Holds at 3.5-3.75% as Powell's Final Meeting Arrives
Meta and Microsoft announced 20,000 combined layoffs in April 2026, explicitly citing AI automation. Here's what traders should know.
Apr 29, 2026
Macro
IMF Cuts Global Growth to 3.1%, Raises Inflation on Oil Shock
IMF downgrades 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% and lifts inflation outlook to 4.4% as the Iran conflict and tariffs reshape the economic picture.
Apr 28, 2026
Macro
Bank of Japan's Hawkish Hold Sends Yen Higher on 6-3 Split
Bank of Japan holds rates at 0.75% but three dissenters push for a hike. Yen strengthens as markets price 74% odds of a June rate increase.
Apr 28, 2026
Macro
Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Low as Inflation Fears Surge
University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 49.8 in April 2026, the lowest reading on record, as year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.7%.
Apr 27, 2026
Macro
Fed Holds Rates This Week as Oil Shock Tests Inflation
The Fed meets April 28-29 with rates at 3.50-3.75%. Markets price a 99.9% hold probability as $107 oil complicates the inflation outlook.
Apr 27, 2026
Macro
Jobless Claims Rise to 214,000 — Why That Locks the Fed In
Initial jobless claims rose to 214,000 last week, slightly above consensus. The range is still tight — and that's exactly the Fed's problem.
Apr 24, 2026
Macro
The Fed's Oil Problem: Rate Cut Odds Collapse as PCE Creeps Higher
Brent at $105 and the Fed's upwardly revised 2.7% PCE track are colliding. The 2026 rate-cut window is closing faster than traders priced.
Apr 24, 2026