Macro
IMF Slashes Global Growth to 3.1% as Hormuz Crisis Deepens
The IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% and raised inflation to 4.4% as the Strait of Hormuz closure removes 10.5M barrels per day from oil markets.
May 19, 2026
Archive
174 articles
Macro
CPI at 3.8% and Gas at $4.50: The Consumer Squeeze Intensifies
April CPI hit 3.8% year-over-year with energy up 17.9%. Gas prices at $4.50 a gallon are reshaping consumer spending as Walmart and Target report this week.
May 18, 2026
Macro
Powell Exits, Warsh Inherits a Fed Trapped by $100 Oil
Kevin Warsh takes the Fed chair as inflation hits 3.8% and oil tops $100. The new chair inherits the tightest policy corner since the 1970s stagflation era.
May 18, 2026
Macro
Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Low as Gas Prices Crush Confidence
University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 48.2 in May 2026, the lowest reading since 1952, as surging gas prices and inflation erode household confidence.
May 15, 2026
Macro
Warsh Takes the Fed Chair as Inflation Closes the Door on Cuts
Kevin Warsh officially becomes Federal Reserve chair on May 15 with CPI at 3.8% and PPI at 6%, facing the toughest inflation backdrop since 2023.
May 15, 2026
Macro
Brent Crude at $107.77 as Iran Ceasefire on "Life Support"
Brent crude topped $107.77 and WTI settled at $102.18 as the Iran ceasefire frays, with the IEA warning of a 3.9 million bpd supply hit.
May 14, 2026
Macro
PPI Jumps 1.4% in April, Largest Monthly Gain Since 2022
April PPI rose 1.4% on the month and 6.0% year-on-year, the hottest reading since 2022, ending the Fed's rate-cut narrative.
May 14, 2026
Macro
Senate Confirms Warsh to Fed Board as Powell Era Ends
The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh to the Fed Board 51-45, clearing his path to Chair before Powell's term expires Friday. A rate-cut champion inherits 3.8% inflation.
May 13, 2026
Macro
April CPI Hits 3.8%, Killing Any Hope of 2026 Rate Cuts
April CPI surged to 3.8% year-over-year, driven by a 28.4% jump in gasoline prices, effectively ending expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026.
May 13, 2026
Macro
April CPI Expected at 3.7% as Energy Shock Hits Data
Economists forecast April CPI at 3.7% year-over-year, up from 3.3% in March. Energy costs drive the acceleration as the Hormuz crisis hits inflation data.
May 12, 2026
Macro
Oil at $103 Puts the Fed in a 1970s-Style Bind
Brent crude surging past $103 on collapsed Iran peace talks is pushing PCE inflation toward 4.5%, recreating a stagflationary trap not seen since the 1970s.
May 11, 2026
Macro
Fed's Warsh Era Begins as Senate Votes on Confirmation
The Senate is expected to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair today, ending the Powell era and opening a new chapter for monetary policy amid 3.5% inflation.
May 11, 2026
Macro
Warsh Era Begins: What a New Fed Chair Means for Rates
Kevin Warsh is set to become Fed Chair on May 15 after a party-line Senate vote. Here's what his leadership means for interest rates and markets.
May 8, 2026
Macro
April Payrolls Preview: Why 70,000 Jobs Changes Everything
April nonfarm payrolls expected at 55K-70K, a sharp slowdown from March. The report drops one week before the Fed's historic leadership change.
May 8, 2026
Macro
30-Year Treasury Yield Flirts With 5% as Oil Muddies Fed
The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.02% before easing to 4.99% as oil-driven inflation fears clash with peace deal optimism. Here's what it means for rates.
May 7, 2026
Macro
April Jobs Report Tomorrow Could Jolt Fed Rate Debate
April nonfarm payrolls forecast at 70K after March's 178K surprise. A hot or cold number could reshape Fed rate expectations ahead of the June FOMC meeting.
May 7, 2026
Macro
Bank of England Hawkish Pivot Stuns Markets on Rates
Bank of England holds rates at 3.75% and signals possible hike as Middle East oil shock pushes UK inflation forecast above 3%, stunning rate-cut bets.
May 6, 2026
Macro
Trump Pauses Hormuz Operation as Iran Deal Takes Shape
Trump pauses Operation Project Freedom in the Strait of Hormuz, signaling progress on Iran peace deal while maintaining blockade of Iranian ports.
May 6, 2026
Macro
Warsh Clears Committee as Powell Era Ends May 15
Kevin Warsh advances toward Fed chair confirmation as Powell confirms exit May 15. Markets face a leadership transition at the worst possible time.
May 5, 2026
Macro
Oil at $114 Threatens the Fed's One-Cut Playbook
Brent crude at $114 and the Strait of Hormuz still closed put the Fed's 2026 rate cut forecast at risk. How the oil shock complicates the inflation fight.
May 5, 2026
Macro
Powell Hands Warsh a Divided Fed With 11 Days to the Switch
Jerome Powell hands the Fed gavel to Kevin Warsh on May 15 with four dissents from last week's FOMC, the deepest split since 1992. What Warsh changes first.
May 4, 2026
Macro
Q1 GDP Slows to 2.0% as PCE Price Index Surges to 4.5%
First-quarter US GDP expanded just 2.0% as the PCE price index hit 4.5%, the worst stagflation print since the early 1980s and a direct hit to Fed policy.
May 4, 2026
Macro
Iran War Oil Shock Pushes Brent to $114 as ISM Data Looms
Brent crude near $114 after touching $126, the largest oil supply disruption on record, threatens the soft landing as the April ISM print arrives Friday.
May 1, 2026
Macro
Fed Holds Rates at 3.5%-3.75% as Four Dissents Mark Deepest Split Since 1992
The Fed kept rates at 3.50%-3.75% Wednesday with four dissents, the most since 1992, as Iran-war oil shock pushes core PCE to 3.2%.
May 1, 2026