Macro
Warsh at Sintra: Prices Too High, July Move Unclear
Fed Chair Warsh told the ECB Forum inflation remains too elevated. With CPI at 4.2% and a rate hike survey at 50%, July policy odds are genuinely open.
Jul 2, 2026
Archive
236 articles
Macro
Fed Holds, But Warsh's Dot Plot Just Repriced Everything
The Fed's June dot plot shifted PCE inflation forecasts to 3.6% and signaled a potential 2026 hike. Here's what that means for yields and rate bets.
Jul 1, 2026
Macro
ECB Hiked While the World Watched — More Coming
The ECB raised rates 25 bps in June as Middle East war drives stagflation. Markets price two more hikes by September. Here's the global central bank divergence trade.
Jul 1, 2026
Macro
Fed's Hike Signal Hardens as PCE Hits 4.1%
PCE inflation jumped to 4.10% in May, core PCE hit 3.40%, and the Fed's dot plot now signals a 2026 hike. What traders must know before July 2.
Jun 30, 2026
Macro
ECB Hikes, BoE Holds: G7 Policy Splits on Iran Shock
The ECB raised rates 25 bps on June 11 as Iran war inflation bites. The BoE held at 3.75%. Global monetary policy divergence is reshaping Q3 macro trades.
Jun 30, 2026
Macro
ECB Hiked, Fed Froze: The Divergence Trade Reshaping Markets
The ECB raised rates June 11 while the Fed held at 3.75%. Five central banks, five responses to the same shock — here's how to trade the fracture.
Jun 29, 2026
Macro
PCE Day: Fed's Inflation Gauge Could Seal a 2026 Hike
June PCE data hits today as the Fed's own projections show 3.6% inflation for 2026. One hot print could lock in a rate hike before year-end.
Jun 29, 2026
Macro
PCE Hits 4.1%: Fed's Hike Path Just Got Clearer
May PCE inflation printed 4.1% headline, 3.4% core — both above the Fed's own upgraded forecasts. An October rate hike is no longer a tail risk.
Jun 26, 2026
Macro
GDP 2.1%, But PCE at 4.1% Kills the Relief Rally
Q1 GDP final estimate holds at 2.1%, but May PCE at 4.1% and a widening current-account deficit frame a stagflation-adjacent macro picture for traders.
Jun 26, 2026
Macro
Fed's Inflation Problem Just Got Real: PCE Day
Core PCE for May prints today as Fed dot plot already signals a potential 2026 hike. Here's what traders need to watch at 8:30 AM ET.
Jun 25, 2026
Macro
ECB Hikes, BoJ Hikes — The Fed Is Alone
Global central banks are fracturing. ECB raised 25bps June 11, BoJ hit 1.0% in June. The Fed is frozen. Dollar and sovereign spreads are the trade.
Jun 25, 2026
Macro
Fed Paralysis Meets 4.2% Inflation: Warsh's First Test
The Fed holds at 3.50–3.75% with a 4-to-8 internal dissent and PCE inflation forecast revised to 3.6%. Thursday's CPI print is the week's true catalyst.
Jun 24, 2026
Macro
BoJ Confirms Rate Hike Path as Yen Dynamics Heat Up
Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino confirms tightening bias after 25bps hike to 1.0%, the highest rate since 1995. What it means for USD/JPY traders.
Jun 24, 2026
Macro
ECB Hikes, BoJ at 1.0%: Global Rate Divergence Widens
The ECB hiked 25 bps on June 11 and the BoJ hit 1.0% while the Fed holds. Global policy divergence is the macro trade of mid-2026. Key levels inside.
Jun 23, 2026
Macro
Fed Frozen at 3.63% as CPI Hits 4.2%: Hike Risk Is Real
The Fed held rates steady at 3.50–3.75% as May CPI surged to 4.2% YoY. The dot plot now signals a possible 2026 hike. Here's what traders must watch.
Jun 23, 2026
Macro
ECB Hikes, BoJ at 1.00%: Global Policy Fractures
ECB raised 25bp June 11, BoJ hit 1.00% — while the Fed froze. The widest G5 central bank divergence since the 1990s is repricing FX, bonds, and energy.
Jun 22, 2026
Macro
Warsh's Fed Eyes Rate Hike as PCE Looms Thursday
Fed holds at 3.63% but signals a 25bp hike ahead. With PCE due Thursday and CPI at 4.2%, Warsh's first FOMC move reshapes 2026 rate expectations.
Jun 22, 2026
Macro
Global Central Banks Split as Hormuz Shock Deepens
The ECB is hiking, the BoC can't cut, and the BoJ may tighten for currency reasons. Central bank divergence is the macro trade of 2026.
Jun 19, 2026
Macro
Fed's Dot Plot Flips: Next Move Is a Hike
The June FOMC held rates at 3.50–3.75%, but 9 of 18 officials now project a hike in 2026. Here's what the hawkish dot-plot flip means for traders.
Jun 19, 2026
Macro
Retail Sales Crush Estimates as Consumers Defy Inflation
May retail sales surged 0.9% vs 0.5% expected, with broad-based gains across sectors. Consumer spending remains resilient despite 6.5% wholesale inflation.
Jun 18, 2026
Macro
ECB Hikes Rates for First Time Since 2023 on War Inflation
The European Central Bank raised rates 25 basis points to 2.25%, its first hike since 2023, as eurozone inflation hit 3.2% driven by Middle East energy costs.
Jun 18, 2026
Macro
ECB Hikes for First Time Since 2023 as Iran War Fuels Euro Inflation
The European Central Bank raised rates 25 basis points to 2.25% on June 11, its first hike since 2023, as eurozone inflation hit 3.2% from the Iran energy shock.
Jun 17, 2026
Macro
Inflation Hits 4.2% as Energy Shock Tightens the Fed's Trap
US CPI inflation surged to 4.2% in May 2026, driven by a 23.5% energy price spike from the Iran conflict. The Fed faces its toughest policy bind in years.
Jun 17, 2026
Macro
Oil Plunges Below $84 as Iran Deal Reshapes Inflation Outlook
Brent crude plunged over 4% to $83.75 after the U.S.-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. What falling oil means for inflation, the Fed, and global markets.
Jun 16, 2026