Archive

PepsiCo Just Warned About Input Costs. It Is the Canary in the Inflation Coal Mine.

Apr 16, 2026

The S&P 500 Just Hit a Record. The Macro Picture Is More Complicated Than That.

Apr 16, 2026

Fed Holds at 3.5% as War-Driven Inflation Clouds Rate Cut Path

The Fed held rates at 3.5%-3.75% for a second meeting and raised inflation forecasts to 2.7% PCE, with Middle East risks complicating the path to cuts.

Apr 15, 2026

IMF Slashes Global Growth to 3.1% on Middle East Energy Shock

The IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast by 0.2 points to 3.1% and raised inflation projections to 4.4%, citing the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

Apr 15, 2026

The Fed Has a Leadership Vacuum at the Worst Possible Time. Here Is Why That Matters.

Jerome Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chair expires in May 2026, and the institution he leaves behind will face some of the most complex monetary policy decisions in a generation. That transition is now unfolding under conditions nobody planned for when the succession process began.

Apr 14, 2026

The PPI Came In Soft. The Inflation Story Just Got More Complicated.

The March Producer Price Index landed this morning, and it landed softer than expected. The headline PPI rose against a consensus forecast, but the details within the report tell a more nuanced story about where inflation is actually heading and what it means for the Federal Reserve's next move.

Apr 14, 2026

ECB Faces Rate Hike Pressure as Oil Shock Hits Europe

The ECB held rates at 2% in March, but Barclays and J.P. Morgan now expect three hikes this year as the Hormuz crisis threatens European energy security.

Apr 13, 2026

CPI Hits 3.3% as Iran War Drives Inflation Surge

March CPI jumped to 3.3% annually on a 21.2% gasoline spike tied to the Iran war. Core inflation held at 2.6%, but the Fed's calculus just got harder.

Apr 13, 2026

Oil Pullback, Fed Uncertainty, and Risk Assets Reprice Higher as Markets Stabilize

Apr 10, 2026

BOJ Meets Simultaneously as $100 Oil Reshapes Global Policy

The Bank of Japan decides rates on the same day as the Fed as the Iran oil shock complicates central banks worldwide. What it means for dollar-yen and U.S. positioning.

Mar 23, 2026

PPI Comes in at 0.7%, Worst Inflation Surprise in a Year

February PPI rose 0.7% versus a 0.3% estimate, pushing the annual rate to 3.4%. The Fed held at 3.5%–3.75%. What the dot plot says about 2026 rate cuts.

Mar 20, 2026