Macro
May Jobs Report Lands as Fed Rate Path Hangs in the Balance
The May nonfarm payrolls report drops at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday with economists expecting 85,000 jobs added. The data arrives ahead of Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting.
Jun 5, 2026
Archive
174 articles
Macro
ECB Poised to Hike Rates in June as Eurozone Inflation Hits 3%
ECB set to raise rates on June 11 as eurozone inflation hits 3% and Iran war pushes oil prices higher. What the first hike since 2023 means for markets.
Jun 4, 2026
Macro
ADP Jobs Beat Lifts Rate-Hike Odds Ahead of Friday Payrolls
ADP reports 122,000 private jobs added in May, the strongest since January 2025, pushing Fed rate-hike odds to 85%. What Friday's payrolls mean next.
Jun 4, 2026
Macro
Jobs Friday Looms as Labor Market Sends Mixed Signals
May nonfarm payrolls drop Friday with April's 115K surprise still fresh. What the jobs data means for Fed policy and recession odds.
Jun 3, 2026
Macro
Hammack Warns Fed May Hike Rates as Inflation Hits 3.8%
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack says rate hikes are possible if inflation trends persist. CPI at 3.8% is the highest since May 2023.
Jun 3, 2026
Macro
Fed Boxed In as Inflation Meets a Factory Boom
The Fed holds at 3.5%-3.75% as ISM hits a four-year high and oil tops $95. With 75% odds of no change through 2026, here's what the rate path looks like now.
Jun 2, 2026
Macro
ISM Manufacturing Hits 54 — Highest Since May 2022
ISM Manufacturing PMI surged to 54 in May, the highest in four years. New orders jumped to 56.8. What the factory boom means for Fed policy and inflation.
Jun 2, 2026
Macro
Chicago PMI Surges to 62.7, Signaling Manufacturing Revival
Chicago PMI jumped 13.5 points to a four-year high of 62.7 in May 2026, smashing consensus and signaling a potential U.S. manufacturing rebound.
Jun 1, 2026
Macro
PCE Inflation Hits 3.8% as Fed Rate Hike Talk Returns
April PCE inflation rose to 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023, as markets begin pricing a possible Fed rate hike by December 2026.
Jun 1, 2026
Macro
Q1 GDP Revised Down to 1.6% as Consumer Spending Weakens
The BEA revised Q1 2026 GDP growth to 1.6% from 2.0%, citing weaker consumer spending and investment. What the slowdown means for markets and the Fed.
May 29, 2026
Macro
PCE Inflation Hits 3.8%, Highest Since 2023, and the Fed Is Stuck
April PCE inflation surged to 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023. Core PCE rose to 3.3%. Here's why the Fed can't cut or hike.
May 29, 2026
Macro
ECB Faces June Rate Hike as Eurozone Inflation Hits 3%
ECB expected to raise rates in June after eurozone inflation surged to 3% in April on energy costs. Bloomberg survey sees two quarter-point hikes in 2026.
May 28, 2026
Macro
PCE Inflation Expected to Hit 3.8% as Fed's Dilemma Deepens
April PCE inflation forecast at 3.8% year-over-year, well above the Fed's 2% target. Core PCE expected at 3.3% as energy shock pressures persist.
May 28, 2026
Macro
Warsh Takes the Fed Into a Minefield of Inflation and War
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces his first FOMC meeting in June with inflation at 3%, oil near $100, and markets pricing rate hikes. What comes next for rates.
May 27, 2026
Macro
Consumer Confidence Slips as War-Driven Inflation Squeezes Spending
Conference Board consumer confidence fell to 93.1 in May as two-thirds of consumers cut spending due to rising prices from the Iran conflict. Full breakdown inside.
May 27, 2026
Macro
Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Low as Inflation Fears Surge
University of Michigan consumer sentiment plunged to 44.8 in May, a record low, as inflation expectations hit 4.8%. What it means for spending and markets.
May 26, 2026
Macro
Warsh Inherits a Fed Nobody Wants to Lead
Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed chair after the most divisive confirmation in Fed history. Inflation at 4.8%, oil chaos, and zero rate cuts expected in 2026.
May 26, 2026
Macro
Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Low Before Today's Final Read
The University of Michigan's final May consumer sentiment lands Friday after a preliminary 48.2 print set the lowest reading since the survey began in 1952.
May 22, 2026
Macro
Warsh Inherits a Fed With Inflation Above Target for 62 Months
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh takes office with inflation above 2% for over five years, complicating any path to rate cuts demanded by the White House.
May 22, 2026
Macro
Bond Vigilantes Are Back: 30-Year Yield Hits 18-Year High
The 30-year Treasury yield surges to 5.2%, an 18-year high, as inflation fears and the Hormuz crisis push long-duration rates to levels not seen since 2008.
May 21, 2026
Macro
Warsh Inherits the Most Divided Fed Since 1992
Kevin Warsh takes over as Fed chair with four FOMC dissents, 3.5% inflation, and bond vigilantes testing him. His first meeting is June 16.
May 21, 2026
Macro
Warsh Inherits a Fractured Fed as Four Dissents Shake Markets
Active ETFs captured 38% of all ETF flows in 2026 with $50 billion in April alone. Mutual fund conversions and bond demand are driving the structural shift.
May 20, 2026
Macro
Inflation Hits 3.8% as Iran War Rewrites the Fed Playbook
April CPI surged to 3.8%, a three-year high, as energy prices jumped 17.9% annually. The Fed's rate path is being rewritten in real time.
May 20, 2026
Macro
Warsh Takes the Fed With Oil Above $100 and a 40% Hike Bet
Kevin Warsh takes over as Fed chair with oil above $100, core PCE at 3%, and markets pricing a 40% chance of a rate hike. His first FOMC meeting is June 16-17.
May 19, 2026