Macro
ECB Decides Thursday With September Hike Already at 70%
The ECB holds at 2.25% Thursday, but Lagarde's press conference carries the real trade — September hike odds sit at 70% and the euro hangs on every word.
Jul 20, 2026
Archive
236 articles
Macro
CPI's -0.4% Drop Is a Gas Station Mirage
June CPI fell 0.4% MoM — the biggest monthly drop since April 2020 — but core inflation held flat. Here's what it means for the July 29 FOMC.
Jul 17, 2026
Macro
The Yield Curve Is Steepening for the Wrong Reasons
The 2s10s spread hit +42 bps as the 10-year holds 4.55%. This isn't a recovery signal — it's stagflation pricing. Here's what the curve is telling traders.
Jul 17, 2026
Macro
Retail Sales Slowdown Tests Consumer Resilience
June retail sales consensus calls for +0.2% MoM — but ex-auto strip expected to go negative. Here's what the 8:30 ET print means for July 29 FOMC.
Jul 16, 2026
Macro
BOJ Hikes, Goldman Targets 165 USD/JPY — Carry Unwind Risk Grows
Bank of Japan raises rates 25bps as Goldman Sachs targets 165 USD/JPY. Here's what the global carry trade repricing means for cross-asset positioning.
Jul 16, 2026
Macro
Warsh Faces Senate at 10 AM — September Hike Still Live
Fed Chair Warsh testifies before the Senate Banking Committee today at 10 AM ET. June CPI's -0.4% MoM print hasn't killed the September hike risk.
Jul 15, 2026
Macro
The Yield Curve at 4.62% Is Telling You Something
The 10-year Treasury yield at 4.62% versus a 2-year at 4.26% signals persistent rate hike risk, not a soft-landing. Here's what the curve means right now.
Jul 15, 2026
Macro
June CPI Drops: What the Number Actually Means
June CPI headline falls on energy reversal, but core inflation holds near 2.9%. Here's what the print means for the July 29 FOMC decision.
Jul 14, 2026
Macro
Warsh Before Congress: What He Must Say Today
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies at 10 AM ET as the FOMC sits split 9-to-8 on rate hikes. What his language on inflation means for July 29.
Jul 14, 2026
Macro
June CPI Preview: Will 3.8% Kill the Rate-Cut Dream?
June CPI drops Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Consensus sees 3.8% headline, 2.8% core. Here's what every number means for the July FOMC.
Jul 13, 2026
Macro
ECB Hikes While Fed Freezes: Trading the Divergence
ECB raised rates to 2.25% in June while the Fed held at 3.62%. Five central banks, five strategies on the same global shock — here's the trade.
Jul 13, 2026
Macro
June CPI Due Tuesday: Will 4.2% Inflation Break Higher?
June CPI drops Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. With May YoY at 4.2% and the Fed's dot plot flagging a hike, this is the week's defining number for traders.
Jul 10, 2026
Macro
Yield Curve Steepens: What 4.56% on the 10-Year Means Now
The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.56% with the 2-year at 4.21%. The steepening curve signals stagflation risk — here's how to trade the spread.
Jul 10, 2026
Macro
FOMC Minutes Drop at 2PM: The 8-4 Dissent Decoded
The June 17 FOMC minutes release at 2:00 p.m. ET today. Four dissenters, a hawkish dot plot, and 4.2% CPI make this the week's most important macro event.
Jul 9, 2026
Macro
ECB Hiked, Fed Frozen: Central Bank Divergence Trades Now
The ECB raised rates to 2.25% while the Fed holds at 3.50–3.75%. The 2026 divergence trade is live — here's what it means for rates, FX, and risk assets.
Jul 9, 2026
Macro
FOMC Minutes Drop at 2PM: The 9-8 Split Explained
Fed minutes land today at 2PM ET revealing a 9-8 split on rate hikes. With September odds at 50-55%, today's release is the most important macro event of the week.
Jul 8, 2026
Macro
Yield Curve at 35bps: What the Spread Is Pricing
The 10-year at 4.48% and 2-year at 4.13% signal a market stuck between a hike and a hold. Here's what the 35bp spread means for traders right now.
Jul 8, 2026
Macro
Fed Minutes Wednesday: One Rate Hike Back on the Table
FOMC minutes drop July 8 at 2 p.m. With CPI at 4.2% and Warsh turning hawkish, a September hike is now a live risk traders can't ignore.
Jul 7, 2026
Macro
Yield Curve Normalized, But the Risk Is Now a Hike
The 10-year/2-year spread hit +35 bps as the curve fully un-inverts. With CPI at 4.2% and the Fed hawkish, normalization may be short-lived.
Jul 7, 2026
Macro
FOMC Minutes Wednesday: Fed Hike in October Is Live
Nine of 19 Fed officials favored a rate hike at June's meeting. Wednesday's FOMC minutes could confirm October as the live date. Here's what to watch.
Jul 6, 2026
Macro
BOJ at 31-Year High, ECB Hiking: The Rate Divergence Trade
The BOJ just hit 1.00% — a 31-year high. The ECB hiked in June. The BoE hikes next month. Global central bank divergence is the macro trade of 2026.
Jul 6, 2026
Macro
Fed Holds at 3.75% But Warsh's Dot Plot Signals a Hike
Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting held rates at 3.50–3.75% but the dot plot shifted hawkish. ECB hiked 25bps. Global central banks are diverging fast.
Jul 3, 2026
Macro
June Jobs Miss: 57K Payrolls vs. 115K Expected
June nonfarm payrolls crashed to 57K vs. 115K expected. September Fed hike odds drop to 53%. What traders must know before July 8.
Jul 3, 2026
Macro
June Jobs Report: 115K Consensus, ADP Already Missed
BLS June nonfarm payrolls drop at 8:30 AM ET today. ADP missed at 98K vs. 110K forecast. Here's what the number means for Fed rate policy.
Jul 2, 2026