Macro
BOJ Hikes to 1.00%; Yen, Global Rates in Play
The Bank of Japan raised rates 25 bps to 1.00% on July 31 — highest since 1995 — as yen intervention and global yield spillovers hit multi-asset traders now.
Aug 5, 2026
Archive
236 articles
Macro
Fed's Three Dissenters Signal September Rate Hike Is Live
Three FOMC dissenters pushed for a hike at the July 29 meeting. With CPI at 3.5% and the 10-year at 4.75%, September 16 is a two-way meeting.
Aug 4, 2026
Macro
Brent at $96 With a Hawkish ECB: Energy's Inflation Loop
Brent crude at $96.12 and WTI at $88.58 are feeding a central bank inflation loop. The ECB hiked in June. The Fed and BoE are under pressure to follow.
Aug 4, 2026
Macro
ISM Manufacturing July: The Number That Moves Rates
ISM Manufacturing PMI July 2026 expected at 54.0 vs prior 53.3 — the Prices Paid sub-index at 70+ is what rate traders are watching most closely today.
Aug 3, 2026
Macro
BoE Holds, UK PMI Surges: What It Means for GBP
UK Manufacturing PMI demolishes 49.7 forecast with a 52.1 print; Bank of England holds at 3.75% with BofA calling no more hikes in 2026. GBP/USD at 1.3450.
Aug 3, 2026
Macro
Fed's 9-3 Hold Sends 30-Year Yield to 2007 High
Three Fed hawks dissent as the 30-year Treasury hits 5.19%—the highest since 2007. What the split vote means for September rate pricing.
Jul 31, 2026
Macro
BoJ Holds at 1.0%, Hawk Pushes Monthly Hike Pace
Bank of Japan holds at a 30-year high of 1.0% but cuts its FY2026 inflation forecast to 2.5%. BoJ hawk Tamura wants hikes every few months.
Jul 31, 2026
Macro
Fed's Three-Dissent Hike Signal Makes September Live
Three FOMC members voted to hike rates at the July meeting. With oil up 20% in July and claims at 60-year lows, September is suddenly in play.
Jul 30, 2026
Macro
Q2 GDP, PCE, and Claims Hit at 8:30 — Here's the Trade
Q2 GDP, Core PCE, and jobless claims all print at 8:30 AM ET today. Here's what each number means for the September Fed hike decision and your portfolio.
Jul 30, 2026
Macro
Fed Holds at 3.50%–3.75% for Fifth Straight Meeting
The FOMC holds rates unchanged for a fifth consecutive meeting as Warsh prepares to speak. No dot plot today — the press conference is all traders get.
Jul 29, 2026
Macro
Oil's 20% July Surge Is the Fed's Biggest Problem Now
WTI crude topped $100 a barrel in July, up 20% on the month. That energy shock will hit PCE data and could force a Fed hike in September 2026.
Jul 29, 2026
Macro
FOMC Day 1: Fed Holds at 3.50–3.75% With Real Two-Way Risk
The FOMC convenes today with a 64.2% hold probability — down 23 points in one week. Here's what the Warsh presser must deliver tomorrow.
Jul 28, 2026
Macro
ECB Holds at 2.25%, BOJ and BOE Due This Week
ECB held rates at 2.25% July 23 with a hawkish tone. BOJ decides Thursday, BOE Friday — a three central bank week with real FX implications.
Jul 28, 2026
Macro
Durable Goods Beat Sets Up Fed's Toughest Call of 2026
June durable goods orders jumped 1.6% with core capex proxy up 1.4%, complicating the FOMC's July 29 rate decision as hawks gain ground.
Jul 27, 2026
Macro
Hawks vs. Doves: Inside the FOMC's Closest Call Since 2024
Fed holds at 3.50–3.75% with 64% probability, but a 23-point swing in one week signals hawks are gaining. Wednesday's statement is the only trade that matters.
Jul 27, 2026
Macro
Fed Blackout Ends July 29: What Powell Must Deliver
The Fed holds 3.50–3.75% into its July 29 FOMC decision with no dot plot, no SEP. Statement language is the only policy signal traders get.
Jul 24, 2026
Macro
ECB Holds at 2.25% — June Hike Was No Fluke
ECB holds deposit rate at 2.25% on July 23 after June's shock 25bp hike. Middle East inflation risk keeps the door open for further tightening.
Jul 24, 2026
Macro
ECB Holds at 2.25% — September Hike Now in Crosshairs
ECB holds rates at 2.25% July 23 as Lagarde signals inflation risks. September hike nearly fully priced. What her language means for EUR/USD and Bunds.
Jul 23, 2026
Macro
Treasury Curve Steepens as FOMC Week Looms
The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.63% vs. 4.26% on the 2-year. With FOMC July 28-29 six days out, the steepening curve signals a key rate inflection.
Jul 23, 2026
Macro
Fed Hold Locked In — But July 29 Statement Is the Trade
The FOMC meets July 28-29 with a hold at 3.50-3.75% near-certain. The real trade is in the statement language on inflation and the Middle East.
Jul 22, 2026
Macro
BOJ Holds July 31, But the Yen Trade Isn't Over
The BOJ holds at 1.00% on July 31 — a near-certainty. But Goldman's 165 USD/JPY forecast and sticky Japanese inflation keep Q4 hike risk alive.
Jul 22, 2026
Macro
ECB Holds Thursday — Lagarde's Words Are the Trade
ECB rate decision hits Thursday at 8:45 AM ET. Hold is 90% priced in, but Lagarde's September forward guidance is where the real trade lives.
Jul 21, 2026
Macro
Fed Frozen at 3.63% — July 29 Is About September
The Fed holds July 29 at 3.50–3.75%. With CPI at 3.5% and a 4-to-8 FOMC dissent, the only question is whether Warsh signals a September cut.
Jul 21, 2026
Macro
Fed Frozen at 3.63% as Inflation Stays 175 bps Above Target
With CPI at 3.5% and the July 31 FOMC meeting days away, the Fed's one-hike dot plot signal is the most important macro trade of the summer.
Jul 20, 2026