Macro
Oil at $114 Threatens the Fed's One-Cut Playbook
Brent crude at $114 and the Strait of Hormuz still closed put the Fed's 2026 rate cut forecast at risk. How the oil shock complicates the inflation fight.
May 5, 2026
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107 articles
Macro
Powell Hands Warsh a Divided Fed With 11 Days to the Switch
Jerome Powell hands the Fed gavel to Kevin Warsh on May 15 with four dissents from last week's FOMC, the deepest split since 1992. What Warsh changes first.
May 4, 2026
Macro
Q1 GDP Slows to 2.0% as PCE Price Index Surges to 4.5%
First-quarter US GDP expanded just 2.0% as the PCE price index hit 4.5%, the worst stagflation print since the early 1980s and a direct hit to Fed policy.
May 4, 2026
Macro
Iran War Oil Shock Pushes Brent to $114 as ISM Data Looms
Brent crude near $114 after touching $126, the largest oil supply disruption on record, threatens the soft landing as the April ISM print arrives Friday.
May 1, 2026
Macro
Fed Holds Rates at 3.5%-3.75% as Four Dissents Mark Deepest Split Since 1992
The Fed kept rates at 3.50%-3.75% Wednesday with four dissents, the most since 1992, as Iran-war oil shock pushes core PCE to 3.2%.
May 1, 2026
Macro
Q1 GDP and March PCE Land Together Thursday — What Traders Watch
Q1 2026 GDP advance estimate and March PCE inflation print together Thursday at 8:30 ET. The two reports will reset the Fed's June decision tree.
Apr 30, 2026
Macro
Fed Holds at 3.75% in Most Divided Vote Since 1992
Federal Reserve held rates at 3.5%-3.75% in an 8-4 split — the most divided FOMC vote in 33 years. Powell's last meeting before stepping down.
Apr 30, 2026
Macro
Q1 GDP Forecasters Split Between 1.2% and 2.6%
Thursday's Q1 2026 GDP advance estimate could land anywhere from 1.2% to 2.6%. Why forecasters disagree this much, and what each scenario means for the Fed.
Apr 29, 2026
Macro
Fed Holds at 3.5-3.75% as Powell's Final Meeting Arrives
Meta and Microsoft announced 20,000 combined layoffs in April 2026, explicitly citing AI automation. Here's what traders should know.
Apr 29, 2026
Macro
IMF Cuts Global Growth to 3.1%, Raises Inflation on Oil Shock
IMF downgrades 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% and lifts inflation outlook to 4.4% as the Iran conflict and tariffs reshape the economic picture.
Apr 28, 2026
Macro
Bank of Japan's Hawkish Hold Sends Yen Higher on 6-3 Split
Bank of Japan holds rates at 0.75% but three dissenters push for a hike. Yen strengthens as markets price 74% odds of a June rate increase.
Apr 28, 2026
Macro
Fed Holds Rates This Week as Oil Shock Tests Inflation
The Fed meets April 28-29 with rates at 3.50-3.75%. Markets price a 99.9% hold probability as $107 oil complicates the inflation outlook.
Apr 27, 2026
Macro
Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Low as Inflation Fears Surge
University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 49.8 in April 2026, the lowest reading on record, as year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.7%.
Apr 27, 2026
Macro
Jobless Claims Rise to 214,000 — Why That Locks the Fed In
Initial jobless claims rose to 214,000 last week, slightly above consensus. The range is still tight — and that's exactly the Fed's problem.
Apr 24, 2026
Macro
The Fed's Oil Problem: Rate Cut Odds Collapse as PCE Creeps Higher
Brent at $105 and the Fed's upwardly revised 2.7% PCE track are colliding. The 2026 rate-cut window is closing faster than traders priced.
Apr 24, 2026
Macro
Warsh Fed Confirmation Stalls as DOJ Probe Hangs Over Powell Exit
Kevin Warsh's Fed chair confirmation has stalled amid a DOJ probe into Powell, raising real risk of a vacancy at the May FOMC.
Apr 23, 2026
Macro
Oil Above $100 for Fourth Day as Hormuz Shipping Stays Disrupted
Brent crude held above $101 Thursday for a fourth straight gain as U.S.-Iran talks stalled and Strait of Hormuz shipping remained disrupted.
Apr 23, 2026
Macro
Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Low as Warsh Faces Senate
UMich consumer sentiment fell to 47.6, the lowest in 74 years, as inflation fears spike. Fed nominee Kevin Warsh faced a combative Senate hearing.
Apr 22, 2026
Macro
IMF Cuts Global Growth to 3.1% on Hormuz Crisis
The IMF slashed its global growth forecast to 3.1% and raised inflation to 4.4% as the Strait of Hormuz blockade threatens a full-blown energy crisis.
Apr 22, 2026
Macro
Kevin Warsh Tells Senate the Fed Must "Stay in Its Lane"
Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh faced the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, pledging central bank independence while a GOP senator threatens to block his confirmation.
Apr 21, 2026
Macro
IMF Slashes Global Growth to 3.1% on Middle East War Risk
The IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.4%, warning the Strait of Hormuz closure is the largest oil supply disruption in history.
Apr 21, 2026
Macro
Fed Boxed In as CPI Hits 3.3% and Oil Reignites Inflation
March CPI at 3.3% and oil surging past $95 leave the Fed with no room to cut at its April 28-29 meeting. The September pivot is now in doubt.
Apr 20, 2026
Macro
Dollar Slides Below 98 on Third Straight Weekly Decline
The DXY fell to 97.70 Friday, down 0.52%, marking a third consecutive weekly decline as Iran de-escalation pulls safe-haven bid out of the greenback.
Apr 17, 2026
Macro
March CPI Spikes to 3.3% on Iran Oil Shock, Fed Cut in Doubt
March CPI jumped to 3.3% from 2.4% in February as the Iran conflict pushed gasoline prices higher, pushing Fed rate-cut bets into 2027.
Apr 17, 2026