Macro
ECB Hiked, Fed Frozen: Central Bank Divergence Trades Now
The ECB raised rates to 2.25% while the Fed holds at 3.50–3.75%. The 2026 divergence trade is live — here's what it means for rates, FX, and risk assets.
Jul 9, 2026
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174 articles
Macro
FOMC Minutes Drop at 2PM: The 9-8 Split Explained
Fed minutes land today at 2PM ET revealing a 9-8 split on rate hikes. With September odds at 50-55%, today's release is the most important macro event of the week.
Jul 8, 2026
Macro
Yield Curve at 35bps: What the Spread Is Pricing
The 10-year at 4.48% and 2-year at 4.13% signal a market stuck between a hike and a hold. Here's what the 35bp spread means for traders right now.
Jul 8, 2026
Macro
Fed Minutes Wednesday: One Rate Hike Back on the Table
FOMC minutes drop July 8 at 2 p.m. With CPI at 4.2% and Warsh turning hawkish, a September hike is now a live risk traders can't ignore.
Jul 7, 2026
Macro
Yield Curve Normalized, But the Risk Is Now a Hike
The 10-year/2-year spread hit +35 bps as the curve fully un-inverts. With CPI at 4.2% and the Fed hawkish, normalization may be short-lived.
Jul 7, 2026
Macro
FOMC Minutes Wednesday: Fed Hike in October Is Live
Nine of 19 Fed officials favored a rate hike at June's meeting. Wednesday's FOMC minutes could confirm October as the live date. Here's what to watch.
Jul 6, 2026
Macro
BOJ at 31-Year High, ECB Hiking: The Rate Divergence Trade
The BOJ just hit 1.00% — a 31-year high. The ECB hiked in June. The BoE hikes next month. Global central bank divergence is the macro trade of 2026.
Jul 6, 2026
Macro
Fed Holds at 3.75% But Warsh's Dot Plot Signals a Hike
Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting held rates at 3.50–3.75% but the dot plot shifted hawkish. ECB hiked 25bps. Global central banks are diverging fast.
Jul 3, 2026
Macro
June Jobs Miss: 57K Payrolls vs. 115K Expected
June nonfarm payrolls crashed to 57K vs. 115K expected. September Fed hike odds drop to 53%. What traders must know before July 8.
Jul 3, 2026
Macro
June Jobs Report: 115K Consensus, ADP Already Missed
BLS June nonfarm payrolls drop at 8:30 AM ET today. ADP missed at 98K vs. 110K forecast. Here's what the number means for Fed rate policy.
Jul 2, 2026
Macro
Warsh at Sintra: Prices Too High, July Move Unclear
Fed Chair Warsh told the ECB Forum inflation remains too elevated. With CPI at 4.2% and a rate hike survey at 50%, July policy odds are genuinely open.
Jul 2, 2026
Macro
Fed Holds, But Warsh's Dot Plot Just Repriced Everything
The Fed's June dot plot shifted PCE inflation forecasts to 3.6% and signaled a potential 2026 hike. Here's what that means for yields and rate bets.
Jul 1, 2026
Macro
ECB Hiked While the World Watched — More Coming
The ECB raised rates 25 bps in June as Middle East war drives stagflation. Markets price two more hikes by September. Here's the global central bank divergence trade.
Jul 1, 2026
Macro
Fed's Hike Signal Hardens as PCE Hits 4.1%
PCE inflation jumped to 4.10% in May, core PCE hit 3.40%, and the Fed's dot plot now signals a 2026 hike. What traders must know before July 2.
Jun 30, 2026
Macro
ECB Hikes, BoE Holds: G7 Policy Splits on Iran Shock
The ECB raised rates 25 bps on June 11 as Iran war inflation bites. The BoE held at 3.75%. Global monetary policy divergence is reshaping Q3 macro trades.
Jun 30, 2026
Macro
ECB Hiked, Fed Froze: The Divergence Trade Reshaping Markets
The ECB raised rates June 11 while the Fed held at 3.75%. Five central banks, five responses to the same shock — here's how to trade the fracture.
Jun 29, 2026
Macro
PCE Day: Fed's Inflation Gauge Could Seal a 2026 Hike
June PCE data hits today as the Fed's own projections show 3.6% inflation for 2026. One hot print could lock in a rate hike before year-end.
Jun 29, 2026
Macro
PCE Hits 4.1%: Fed's Hike Path Just Got Clearer
May PCE inflation printed 4.1% headline, 3.4% core — both above the Fed's own upgraded forecasts. An October rate hike is no longer a tail risk.
Jun 26, 2026
Macro
GDP 2.1%, But PCE at 4.1% Kills the Relief Rally
Q1 GDP final estimate holds at 2.1%, but May PCE at 4.1% and a widening current-account deficit frame a stagflation-adjacent macro picture for traders.
Jun 26, 2026
Macro
Fed's Inflation Problem Just Got Real: PCE Day
Core PCE for May prints today as Fed dot plot already signals a potential 2026 hike. Here's what traders need to watch at 8:30 AM ET.
Jun 25, 2026
Macro
ECB Hikes, BoJ Hikes — The Fed Is Alone
Global central banks are fracturing. ECB raised 25bps June 11, BoJ hit 1.0% in June. The Fed is frozen. Dollar and sovereign spreads are the trade.
Jun 25, 2026
Macro
Fed Paralysis Meets 4.2% Inflation: Warsh's First Test
The Fed holds at 3.50–3.75% with a 4-to-8 internal dissent and PCE inflation forecast revised to 3.6%. Thursday's CPI print is the week's true catalyst.
Jun 24, 2026
Macro
BoJ Confirms Rate Hike Path as Yen Dynamics Heat Up
Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino confirms tightening bias after 25bps hike to 1.0%, the highest rate since 1995. What it means for USD/JPY traders.
Jun 24, 2026
Macro
ECB Hikes, BoJ at 1.0%: Global Rate Divergence Widens
The ECB hiked 25 bps on June 11 and the BoJ hit 1.0% while the Fed holds. Global policy divergence is the macro trade of mid-2026. Key levels inside.
Jun 23, 2026