Macro
Fed Minutes Show Rate Hike Risk Is Back on the Table
FOMC July minutes reveal officials open to rate hikes if inflation stays elevated. September 16 meeting is now live. Here's what traders must watch.
Aug 21, 2026
Archive
236 articles
Macro
Housing Stasis Deepens as Fed Holds Rates Near 3.63%
Existing home sales bounce to 4.0M units in July but the trend is flat. The Fed's housing warning in July minutes signals the sector's real danger ahead.
Aug 21, 2026
Macro
FOMC Minutes Confirm Hawkish Tilt: Three Dissenters Eye Hikes
Yesterday's FOMC minutes revealed three dissenters favoring rate hikes — the most aggressive internal split since 2022. Here's what traders must price in now.
Aug 20, 2026
Macro
Brent at $92, CPI at 3.4%: Energy Is Breaking the Fed's Playbook
Brent crude at $92.51 and WTI at $84.05 are embedding inflation the Fed cannot hike away. Here's how energy is reshaping the macro trade in August 2026.
Aug 20, 2026
Macro
FOMC Minutes Tomorrow: Three Hawkish Dissents Raise Stakes
Three Fed officials voted to hike at the July 29 meeting. Tomorrow's FOMC Minutes reveal how close the committee came to raising rates above 3.75%.
Aug 19, 2026
Macro
10-Year Yield at 4.72% With Curve Steepening Fast
The 2s10s Treasury spread hit 53 basis points as the 10-year yield closes at 4.72%. What the steepening curve signals for rate policy and risk assets.
Aug 19, 2026
Macro
Three Fed Hawks Signal September Hike Risk
Three FOMC dissenters demanded a July rate hike. Wednesday's minutes at 2 PM ET will reveal how deep the hawkish coalition runs before September 16.
Aug 18, 2026
Macro
Housing Starts Slip as Mortgage Rates Stay Punishing
July housing starts expected to fall from 1.427M as the 10-year yield holds at 4.68% and NAHB sentiment drops for a second straight month.
Aug 18, 2026
Macro
Three Fed Dissenters Signal Rate Hike Risk Is Real
Three FOMC members voted to hike at July 29 meeting. With CPI at 3.3% and mid-week minutes dropping, rate hike risk is back on the table.
Aug 17, 2026
Macro
Global Central Banks Fracture as Hormuz Shock Bites
ECB hiking, BoJ at 31-year highs, Fed paralyzed by dissent. The synchronized central bank era is over — here's what that means for your trades.
Aug 17, 2026
Macro
July Retail Sales Land as Consumer Holds, Barely
July retail sales beat flat forecasts as NRF data showed core sales up 0.32% MoM — but the control group reading is what the Fed's hawks are watching.
Aug 14, 2026
Macro
Fed's 9-3 Dissent Raises September Hike Stakes
Three FOMC members voted to hike at July 29 meeting — the first 3-way hawkish dissent since 2016. August 19 minutes and Jackson Hole will define September 16.
Aug 14, 2026
Macro
PPI July 2026: Today's 8:30 Print Is the Fed's Next Test
July PPI releases at 8:30 AM ET today. After a -0.3% June drop and a 5.5% YoY run, this number moves the September rate decision needle.
Aug 13, 2026
Macro
Yield Curve Un-Inverts at 48 bps: What It Means Now
The 10-year Treasury at 4.70% and the 2-year at 4.22% show a 48-basis-point spread. History says this matters — here's what traders need to act on.
Aug 13, 2026
Macro
July CPI Drops at 8:30 AM — Fed's Next Move Hangs on Print
July CPI hits the tape at 8:30 AM ET. Consensus is 3.4% headline, 2.5% core. One number reprices September rate hike odds in real time.
Aug 12, 2026
Macro
Yield Curve Steepens to 47 bps — What It Signals Now
The 10-year Treasury yields 4.72% versus 4.25% on the 2-year — a 47-bp positive spread that's repricing growth and inflation risk simultaneously.
Aug 12, 2026
Macro
July CPI Lands Tomorrow — Fed's Rate Path Hinges on One Number
July CPI prints Wednesday 8:30 AM ET. With three FOMC dissenters already pushing for a hike and inflation at 3.5%, this number moves markets.
Aug 11, 2026
Macro
Yield Curve Uninverts as Global Central Banks Diverge
The 2s10s spread hits +46 bps as the ECB hikes, BOJ tightens to 0.75%, and the BOE eases. Here's what the divergence means for U.S. rate traders.
Aug 11, 2026
Macro
July CPI Wednesday: Fed's September Decision Hinges on It
Three Fed hawks wanted a July hike. Wednesday's July CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET is the single data point that decides whether they get their way in September.
Aug 10, 2026
Macro
Yield Curve Steepens to 44bps: What It's Pricing Now
The 10-year Treasury at 4.69% vs. the 2-year at 4.25% marks a 44bp positive spread — a steepening that signals higher-for-longer risk, not rate cuts.
Aug 10, 2026
Macro
July Jobs Report: 83K Consensus, Everything Rides on 8:30
July nonfarm payrolls hit at 8:30 AM ET with an 83K consensus. A miss could kill September hike odds; a beat validates the Fed's three dissenters.
Aug 7, 2026
Macro
Fed's 9-3 Split: What the Most Divided Vote Since 2016 Means
Three FOMC dissenters wanted a hike on July 29. With 10-year yields at 4.63% and CPI at 3.5%, the September meeting is now a live event.
Aug 7, 2026
Macro
Brent at $91.63 Keeps Inflation Alive and Rate Cuts on Hold
Brent crude at $91.63 and WTI at $84.51 are the Fed's inflation problem in commodity form. Here's what the energy bid means for September policy.
Aug 6, 2026
Macro
U.S. GDP Slows to 1.5% as Fed Hawks Circle
Q2 2026 GDP grew just 1.5% annualized, decelerating sharply from Q1's 2.1% — and three FOMC dissenters wanted a hike anyway. Here's what it means.
Aug 5, 2026