BHP Earnings Today: Can $30B Revenue Hold at $90?
BHP reports full-year H2 2026 earnings before the open. Street expects $2.67 EPS on $30.21B revenue. Here's what traders need to watch.
Key Points
- BHP opens at $90.51 today as it reports full-year results against a Street EPS estimate of $2.67 on $30.21B revenue — a bar set 19% above last quarter's $2.396 actual print.
- The iron ore–copper revenue split and forward guidance language will determine whether BHP holds near its 52-week high of $93.83 or retreats toward BofA's newly cut $91 target.
- Watch the 6:30 PM ET conference call for copper volume guidance, which is the single variable most likely to move the stock beyond today's session.
BHP Group opens at $90.51 this morning with its full-year H2 2026 results hitting the tape before the open — and the Street has set a demanding bar. Analysts are looking for EPS of $2.67 on revenue of $30.21 billion, a figure that requires BHP to significantly outpace the $2.396 EPS it delivered last quarter against a much softer $2.236 estimate. The stock is trading within 4% of its 52-week high of $93.83. This is not a name that gets the benefit of the doubt at these levels.
The Setup Going In
Last quarter's 7% EPS beat bought BHP considerable goodwill with the market, but that goodwill is now priced in. Shares have run from a 52-week low of $51.83 — a 75% move — and the analyst community is visibly split on what this print can actually deliver. Bank of America cut its price target last week from $93 to $91, slapping a Neutral on the stock just days before results. Argus sits on the other side with a $95 target. The consensus average, however, is a sobering $78.00 — a full 14% below where BHP opened this morning. That gap between where the stock trades and where the average analyst thinks it belongs is the single most important context for reading today's reaction.
Zacks downgraded BHP from Strong Buy to Hold on July 22nd, a signal that the easy momentum trade has run its course. Wall Street Zen flipped to Buy on Sunday, which reads more like narrative chasing than fundamental conviction at this stage. Deutsche Bank's July 2nd Buy reaffirmation is the most credible bullish data point in the recent analyst flow, and even that came six weeks ago when the stock was trading materially lower. The positioning here is crowded on the long side with thin cover if the number disappoints.
What the Numbers Actually Need to Show
The $30.21 billion revenue target is the real test. BHP's business breaks into two dominant segments — iron ore and copper — and the relative performance of each will tell traders everything about trajectory into fiscal 2027. Iron ore prices have been volatile against a backdrop of uneven Chinese steel demand, and any softness in realized price per ton versus the prior period will be visible immediately in segment margin disclosure. WTI crude sitting at $78.94 per barrel and Brent at $87.86 matter here too: BHP's energy costs run through both its mining operations and its shipping exposure, and a widening Brent-WTI spread of nearly $9/barrel is a margin headwind that the Street may not have fully modeled.
Copper is where the bull case lives. BHP has been explicit about its long-term copper growth ambitions, and today's segment revenue will be the first hard data point against that thesis in H2. The metal's role in electrification infrastructure — grid buildout, EV supply chains, data center cooling — keeps institutional demand for copper exposure elevated. If BHP's copper revenue comes in above the implied run rate from last quarter, expect the stock to make a run at the $93.83 high. If it misses even modestly, BofA's $91 target becomes the gravitational center fast. The 10-year Treasury yield at 4.63% is not doing the mining sector any favors on valuation — every point of multiple compression matters when you're already trading at a premium to consensus.
One variable that rarely gets enough attention in mining earnings: cost inflation at the mine level. BHP operates across Australia, Chile, and Canada, and currency movements plus labor costs in those jurisdictions can swing EBITDA margins by several hundred basis points without showing up obviously in the headline revenue figure. Watch the operating cost per ton disclosure in the iron ore segment specifically — that's where margin defense or erosion becomes visible.
What Traders Watch Next
The earnings calendar for this week runs hot through Thursday, with Walmart and Alibaba both reporting August 20th. But BHP's 6:30 PM ET conference call tonight is the next live catalyst for this specific trade. Management's language around Chinese steel demand, copper production volumes for fiscal 2027, and capital allocation — specifically whether the dividend holds or grows — will set the tone for the stock through the end of August.
The technical picture gives traders a clean framework. $93.83 is the 52-week high and obvious resistance. A beat-and-raise that includes bullish copper guidance could push BHP through that level and open a path toward Argus's $95 target. A miss or a cautious outlook — particularly any commentary suggesting Chinese demand is softer than expected entering Q3 — likely sends the stock back toward $84, which is where the stock built its last consolidation base before the recent leg higher. The BofA $91 target is the first support level to watch on any initial weakness today; that's where the Neutral-rated institutional money starts thinking about whether to add.
The macro backdrop for commodity equities is genuinely mixed right now. Core CPI at 2.5% year-over-year keeps the Fed from cutting aggressively — the Fed Funds rate is still at 3.63% — which limits the multiple expansion that would otherwise reward a clean earnings beat in a capital-intensive sector. Gold at $4,437 per ounce reflects real-asset demand that should theoretically lift all commodity miners, but BHP's iron ore and copper correlation to gold is loose at best. The more relevant signal is where crude settles this week: energy costs are BHP's second-largest variable expense category, and the $82.40 crude print from Friday's close is already above the $78.94 WTI spot figure from earlier this month, suggesting some cost pressure the most recent quarterly model may not reflect.
Position sizing matters today. With one Strong Buy, two Buys, and seven Holds in the analyst community, and a consensus target 14% below the current price, the risk-reward for new longs initiated at $90.51 is asymmetric to the downside. The trade for aggressive players is a tight stop below $88 with a target at $93.83 on a clean beat. For everyone else, the call tonight at 6:30 PM ET is the event — not the opening print.
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